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03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The surging Utah Jazz hope to keep the pressure on Northwest Division-leading Denver when they begin a four-game road trip in the Windy City against a reeling Chicago Bulls team.
Traditionally the Jazz don't perform all that well away from Salt Lake City but things have changed recently and Jerry Sloan's club will be shooting for its ninth win in its past 11 games as the visitor tonight.
Most recently Utah, which is 1 1/2 games south of the Nuggets for the Northwest lead, earned a 107-85 win over the LA Clippers in Salt Lake City on Saturday. Veteran big man Mehmet Okur poured in a game-high 27 in that one as the Jazz continued their dominance over the Clips on their home floor.
Carlos Boozer added 17 points and 17 rebounds for the Jazz, who have won 40 of the last 41 games against the Clippers in Salt Lake City. Deron Williams posted 10 points and 10 assists, while Kyle Korver contributed 12 points in the win.
Wesley Matthews and CJ Miles each had 11 points for Utah, which has won eight of 11 overall.
"(Okur) shot the ball well tonight. I like to see the ball inside first and then the passes kicked out rather than pulling up for three," said Sloan. "I thought we played with a great deal of patience and took the three when we had it."
The Bulls, meanwhile, dropped their fourth in a row on Saturday when Dirk Nowitzki scored 27 points, and the short-handed Dallas Mavericks secured their 11th straight victory, 122-116, over Chicago.
Derrick Rose had 34 points and eight assists for the Bulls, who have lost four in a row and lead Charlotte by just one-half game for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
"It's hard sticking with them," Rose said. "They have a lot of options they can go to, a lot of big-time scorers."
Brad Miller scored 17, while Taj Gibson ended with 10 points and 11 boards for Chicago.
The Bulls' skid has coincided with the absence of defensive stopper Joakim Noah, who has missed all four games in the losing streak with a case of with plantar fasciitis and is expected to miss at least another two weeks.
Utah has lost four of their past five trips to the United Center.
<< Blazers welcome Kings to Rose Garden
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Portland Trail Blazers hope to bounce back from one of
their worst defensive performances of the season tonight when they take on the
Sacramento Kings at the Rose Garden.
Carmelo Anthony posted 30 points on Sunday to
<< 2010 Big Ten Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 13th Annual Big Ten Conference
Tournament gets underway on Thursday, March 11th from Conseco Fieldhouse in
Indianapolis, Indiana. Purdue is the defending tournament champion, having
topped Ohio State in l
<< Red Wings host Flames in matchup of playoff hopefuls
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Flames and Detroit Red Wings will both be
aiming for a third straight victory when they meet in the Motor City tonight
for a battle between playoff hopefuls at Joe Louis Arena.
In addition to winning two straig
<< Thrashers, Predators both aim to avoid third straight loss
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of playoff hopefuls will try to avoid third
consecutive losses tonight when the Atlanta Thrashers host the Nashville
Predators at Philips Arena.
Both the Thrashers and Predators came out of the Olympic break with ba
Panthers aim for rare win against Wild >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers were able to stop their longest losing
streak of the season with victories in their last two games. Now the team will
turn its attention towards ending a long winless drought against the Minnesota
Wild wh
Canucks visit Avs in clash between Northwest's top two teams >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Of all the games the Vancouver Canucks have played on their
NHL-record 14-game road trip, tonight's contest with the Colorado Avalanche
could be the most important.
Northwest Division-leading Vancouver will try to extend i
Ailing Senators start up road trip in Edmonton >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As the Ottawa Senators head to Western Canada, they hope
they left a crippling flu bug behind them. The team will try to snap a three-
game overall slide and pick up a sixth straight win over the Edmonton Oilers,
who look to
Ducks hope to end slide in matchup with slumping Jackets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Anaheim Ducks know that their current seven-game
homestand might represent their best chance to get back into the playoff
picture. However, after a less-than-stellar start to the residency, they
should be happy to see the
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.
Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.
MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .
''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''
Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.
He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.
''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''
Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.
Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.
With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.
Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com
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