Get on Board with Untested Pitchers

Baseball Betting Lines

05/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When it comes to wagering on baseball, gamblers usually shy away from the unknown. It's easy to back the likes of Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay, but putting your money on rookies is another story.

However, don't take these inexperienced pitchers lightly. Even though most bettors have never seen them on the mound, it also stands to reason the opposition hasn't either. And that leads to a very important angle - never let a great opportunity to make money pass you by.

Some of these young pitchers have already become key members in their club's rotation while others have been used as spot starters due to injury. Whatever the case may be, their mound success has translated to a lot of green in one's wallet if he/she has been paying attention.

All in all, nine pitchers with fewer than five career starts (and less than four years experience) have combined for an incredible +1,147 units in a little over one month's worth of action. Three of the nine stand out above the rest since they have accounted for 15 of the 24 starts, but don't shy away from the others since they've accumulated a bankroll of over $400.

THE BIG THREE

The first of the five-start hurlers is Jaime Garcia. The Cardinals' fifth starter is 3-1 this season with an amazing 1.13 ERA. More importantly, since he's behind the likes of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright in the rotation, he's flown well below the radar even in his last two starts.

Garcia and the Cards were only -113 favorites at Philadelphia earlier in the week, against a pitcher in Joe Blanton who was making his first start of the year. St. Louis roughed up Blanton for 10 hits and four runs in 6 2/3 innings en route to the 6-3 road victory.

In his prior outing, Garcia and two relievers shut out the Braves, 6-0 - his second straight amazing performance at Busch Stadium. Earlier in the season, Garcia held the Mets scoreless on just one hit through seven innings.

It's still early in the season but the kid picked in the 22nd round back in 2005 has given up only five hits and zero runs in 14 home frames. Garcia is only +128 units in five starts, but until opposing hitters get the best of him, look for that total to rise in the coming months.

Cincinnati's Mike Leake came into the big leagues off one of the finest college seasons in recent memory. The righthander finished his junior year at Arizona State 16-1 with a 1.71 ERA, becoming the first starter in Pac-10 history to win back-to-back Pitcher of the Year awards.

He also damaged opposing hurlers his final two seasons, batting .325 with 15 RBI in 80 at-bats.

Stephen Strasburg received almost all the attention at last year's draft, but Leake has gotten the jump on his counterpart with five starts already on his resume. The 22-year-old has won just two of those outings but the Reds are 4-1 in those games. Furthermore, Leake has yet to lose and his ERA is a healthy 2.94.

Control was an issue early in the year with 12 walks in his first 13 2/3 innings. However, the California native has gained a better command of his pitches of late, going 20 frames with just four bases-on-balls. Leake is also helping himself at the plate, batting .364 with four hits in 11 at-bats.

All that success explains why the eighth player selected in last year's draft is +314 units.

The final starter of the bunch hurls for another team from the Midwest.

Cleveland's Mitch Talbot has not received any of the accolades heaped upon either Garcia or Leake, but has been even more effective when it comes to the gambling side of baseball.

The former Tampa Bay pitcher started slowly in 2010, allowing four runs in a 4-2 loss at Detroit but since then, he's reeled off three wins in four starts with a 2.15 ERA. That success has his backers holding $364 since his initial start on April 10.

SPOT STARTERS COMING THROUGH IN THE CLUTCH

There have been nine other starts this season from six pitchers with fewer than five career starts and less than four years experience. What might be a surprising statistic to some is that three of the six hurlers came through with victories, while two others helped their team to "W's" even though each failed to pick up the win.

Luis Atilano leads the bunch with two victories - both times as the underdog. The rookie stepped in when Jason Marquis went down with an elbow injury, and proceeded to win his first two big-league starts at +119 and +192 units.

On May 3, Cesar Valdez did the same in place of Kris Benson, giving up only one run in five innings as the Diamondbacks routed the Astros, 9-1.

One day earlier, Jhoulys Chacin allowed only one hit through seven frames, leading the Rockies past the Giants. Since Chacin squared off against Jonathan Sanchez and his 1.85 ERA, Colorado was +140 units...a nice score as a road underdog.

On May 1, Dodgers reliever Carlos Monasterios got the call in his first-ever start but was denied the victory since he was taken out after just four innings. Los Angeles knocked off the Pirates, 5-1 so even though Monasterios didn't get credit for the win, the bettors who backed Los Angeles were still rewarded with the victory.

This past Thursday night, another Dodgers rookie, John Ely, came close to picking up his first career victory, but Jonathan Broxton blew the save allowing Milwaukee to tie with two runs in the top of the ninth.

The hometown team had one more shot to break the tie and Andre Ethier came through with a walk-off grand slam home run, good for a 7-3 Dodgers win. Ely did not get credit for the "W" but once again, those who wagered on the Dodgers did.

The only starter of the six that failed to bring home the bacon was the Rockies' Esmil Rogers, who lost 6-1 as an underdog to Matt Cain and San Francisco.

Betting on the unknown might be a scary proposition, but it's been well worth it so far in 2010.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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American Idol Betting Odds: Season 6  

The online gambling websites are in the process of deciphering each American Idol contestant and his or her chances of winning Season 6 to come up with the early American Idol betting lines.

Tim Dalton of MySportsbook.com has been locked away in a soundproof room coming up with all the latest tallies, we are told. "American Idol has become one of the most significant betting events of the year," claims Jack Black of MySportsbook.com.  "Last year, millions were bet during the season across the globe, not just in America.

It's tough early on since we really do not have a glimpse as to how well each of these individuals will perform solo on a week-to-week basis.  It's like Week 1 of the NFL.  Pre-season means nada!

We do know the 24 finalists however.

Sanjaya Malakar is the young man whose sister failed to make it into the Top 24.  He's very low key but - unless he totally flubs - will probably win over the young girlie vote for a few weeks anyway.  He's too young to go all the way, according to Payton O'Brien. 

Brandon Rogers - Who?

Phil Stacy is the military guy who missed his daughter's birth because of the Memphis audition.  He should go a good distance.

Chris Sligh - He's got the humor and in many ways he's the Anti-American Idol much like last year's winner Taylor Hicks was.  And this is why he'll probably get pretty far in this competition.  He's chubby, white with a big curly afro....but more importantly, a great voice!  People love "real", not "real cute" to go all the way. 

"Blake Lewis should go far because of his uniqueness and looks.  He's the boy next store with a twist - he beat boxes.  But on top of this, he's a great singer, and I adore him," Payton O'Brien relayed.

A talented beat-boxer Blake Lewis was a hit during the group sing in Hollywood but Simon explained that this is a singing contest just before he told him he was “in.”

Paul Kim has caught our own roving reporter, Jenny Woo's eyes. 

"I love the fact that there is a Korean American on the show and he is bound to get more Asians tuning into the show," Woo said from her Miami Beach estate.  "There has never been a major presence of Asian-Americans on American Idol in the past.  He's a hottie with a nice voice so that should help to take him far.  Expect heavy betting action from the Asian community."

Sundance Head - He's not perfect, but he's got the personality that will take him through a few weeks, plus he's got the lineage (son of Roy Head - whose 1965 single, "Treat Her Right," hit No. 5 in the charts) 

And the others:

Rudy Cardinas
AJ Tabaldo - the 5th time is the charm
Nicolas Pedro
Chris Richardson
Jared Cotter

The girls

"Melinda Doolittle has one of the best voices," says MySportsbook.com Reporter and an acclaimed dancer in her own right, Destiney Lewis.  "It is great to see a back up singer step out like she has.  The girl needs to gain more confidence but that can also be a positive.  I think she will go far."

Alena Alexander - Those tears (she never seems to stop bawling) should get her far.

"Single mom Lakisha Jones I suspect will be a pretty big favorite entering Week 1 of the competition," says Destiny Williams.  Jones is an excellent singer and down to earth.  "She'll have a wide appeal," echoed O'Brien.

Nicole Trellis - Seems to exert confidence.

Amy Krebs - a powerful singer.

Antonella Barba
Gina Glocksen
Hailey Scanardo
Jordan Sparks
Stephanie Edwards
Leslie Hunt
Sabrina Sloan

MySportsbook.com is offering a 20% signup bonus with an initial deposit (i.e. open your American Idol betting account with $300, receive another $60 in which to bet with). 

Last two contestants will be?

1 Male/1 Female +100 (a $10 bet pays $10 plus your initial $10)

2 Males +170 (a $10 bet pays $17 plus your initial $17)

2 Females +130 (a $10 bet pays $13 plus your initial $10)

MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook accepts Visa Credit Cards and online sportsbook accepts Mastercard Credit Cards for easy American Idol betting lines.