Blind Luck captures Alabama Stakes

Horseracing Betting Lines

08/21/2010 - Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The two leading three-year-old fillies in training met Saturday in Saratoga's $500,000 Alabama Stakes and it was Blind Luck proving the better of the two in the 1 1/4-mile race.

Devil May Care, ridden by John Velazquez, was sent off as the 3-5 favorite in the six-horse field. Blind Luck, with Joel Rosario aboard, was the 9-5 second choice.

Devil May Care won Saratoga's Coaching Club American Oaks and Blind Luck was coming off a nose win in the Delaware Oaks.

The pace in the Alabama was set by Acting Happy with Tizahit right behind. Running in third was Connie and Michael followed by Havre de Grace, Devil May Care and Blind Luck.

The fillies maintained their positions up the backstretch and into the far turn. Around the final turn Devil May Care began her move on the outside, quickly joining the leaders as Blind Luck began to rally from last.

Coming into the stretch Acting Happy and Havre de Grace were to the inside, with Devil May Care on the outside. Blind Luck was four wide at the top of the stretch.

Down the stretch the battle was between Blind Luck, Havre de Grace and Acting Happy. Havre de Grace, ridden by Jeremy Rose, was beaten in the Delaware Oaks by the smallest of margins.

Blind Luck, trained by co-owner Jerry Hollendorfer, once again took the lead just yards from the wire and was able to record a neck victory over Havre de Grace with Acting Happy finishing third.

Todd Pletcher's Devil May Care had nothing down the stretch and finished fourth. Rounding out the order finish was Tizahit and Connie and Michael.

The final time for the Alabama on a fast track was 2:03.89.

Blind Luck returned $5.60, $3.80 and $3.60. Havre de Grace paid $6.00 and $5.90, while Acting Happy paid $9.00 to show.

Blind Luck, who is ranked seventh in the NTRA Thoroughbred Poll, notched her fifth win of the year in seven starts, and the ninth in 13 career races. The $300,000 first-place check brings her 2010 earnings to more than $1.1 million and her career winnings are now better than $1.8 million.

Hollendorfer has already indicated that he plans to bring back the filly for her four-year-old season.

"Next year we might consider putting her on turf if we feel it warrants that," the trainer said this week.

In June she was second to Switch in the Hollywood Oaks, which came after her furious rally to win the Kentucky Oaks. Blind Luck won the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park in April as the 1-2 favorite. In February the filly won the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita as the 1-5 favorite, but failed at 1-2 to Crisp in the Santa Anita Oaks in March when she finished third.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.