Astros head to Chicago seeking to build off first win

Baseball Betting Lines

04/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off their first win of the 2010 season, the Houston Astros hope to make it two in a row when they open a three-game series against the National League Central-rival Chicago Cubs today at Wrigley Field.

The Astros lost their first eight games of the new season before salvaging the finale of a three-game set with a 5-1 victory over St. Louis on Thursday from Busch Stadium. Starter Bud Norris allowed one unearned run through five innings and struck out nine batters with three walks and four hits allowed. He also knocked in a run at the plate.

"We have to keep it a little looser in here," Norris said. "We have a good group of guys, and we're coming together."

Chris Sampson, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom combined to throw four shutout innings of relief to preserve the victory. Jeff Keppinger had two hits and three RBI for the Astros, who are 1-2 on a six-game road trip, and Michael Bourn ended with two hits and a pair of runs scored. Pedro Feliz recorded an RBI in the win.

Hoping to keep the 'Stros in the win column Thursday will be Felipe Paulino, who did not record a decision in his first start. Paulino took the hill in a 9-6 loss versus Philadelphia on April 10, when he gave up four runs, four hits and four walks in five innings. The righty also fanned four batters.

Paulino is winless in his career against the Cubs, going 0-1 with an 8.10 earned run average through two games, one of which was a start.

Chicago failed in its bid for a three-game sweep of Milwaukee, as it dropped an 8-6 decision in Thursday's series finale. Starter Carlos Zambrano was roughed up for four runs -- three earned -- and eight hits over five innings for the no-decision. He managed to strike out seven Brewers, while reliever Jeff Samardzija was saddled with the loss for allowing a pair of runs in two innings of work.

"I thought I made some good pitches, but obviously you can't walk a guy with two outs in that (seventh) inning and then let him take a bag...and then that pitch to (Ryan) Braun," remarked Samardzija.

Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Marlon Byrd all homered for the Cubs, who are 2-1 on a six-game homestand.

Carlos Silva will handle pitching duties for the Cubs this afternoon and pitched well in his 2010 debut. In a 5-4 loss at Cincinnati on April 9, Silva did not factor in the outcome despite allowing only one run on three hits in six innings. He struck out three batters and did not issue a walk.

The right-hander is 1-0 with a 5.23 ERA in six career games (1 start) against the Astros.

Chicago won 11 of 17 meetings with Houston a year ago, including a 6-3 ledger at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have won two straight and four of their last five meetings with the rival Astros.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.